| Abstract Submission No. | ABS-4.1-0109 |
| Title of Abstract | Development of magnitude-based earthquake early warning relations for the Himachal Pradesh region using observed and simulated datasets (M4.0¿8.0) |
| Authors | Vikas Singh*, Dr. Sandeep, Dr. Suraj Kumar Pal , Dr. Monika , Pragya Singh , Praveen Kumar |
| Organisation | Banaras Hindu University Varanasi UP |
| Address | Banaras Hindu University Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh, India Pincode: 221005 E-mail: vks.96@bhu.ac.in |
| Country | India |
| Presentation | Poster |
| Abstract | Himachal Pradesh lies in one of the most seismically active zones of the Himalayas and is located within the central seismic gap. This region is considered highly prone to future large earthquakes. The history of past large events underlines the urgent requirement for a reliable Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system. In this study, we developed conventional EEW magnitude-based relations using two parameters average period (τc) and peak displacement amplitude (Pd) which are utilized for regional warnings. The largest instrumentally recorded earthquake in this area reached a magnitude of 5.1. Robust EEW relations require data from larger earthquakes. To address this limitation, we employed a modified semi-empirical technique (MSET) to generate synthetic strong-motion P-wave records. Using this method, we simulated 25 scenario earthquakes covering a magnitude range from M 5.0 to 8.0. Further, estimated the EEW parameters τc and Pd from both observed and simulated data and developed corresponding magnitude regression relations. These relations are further validated using simulated datasets from 12 independent earthquakes. Validation of the τc¿M and Pd¿M relations for these 12 events yielded low relative percentage errors ranging from 0.13% to 8.0%. The consistently low errors along with a high Pearson correlation coefficient demonstrate the robustness of these relations across a broad range of magnitudes. Thus, the developed relations offer accurate magnitude estimates for regional EEW systems, significantly strengthening early warning capability and enhancing disaster preparedness in this highly vulnerable Himalayan belt. |
| Keywords | Earthquake Early Warning, Average Period, peak displacement amplitude, Simulation |