| Abstract Submission No. | ABS-1.3-0225 |
| Title of Abstract | Linking the Arctic sea ice and the Indian Monsoon: Understanding Cross-Latitude Climate Interactions |
| Authors | Dr Avinash Kumar*, Juhi Yadav, Seong-Joong Kim, Rohit Srivastava, Rahul Mohan, M. Ravichandran |
| Organisation | National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research (NCPOR), Ministry of |
| Address | National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research, Headland Sada, Vasco da Gama, Goa Vasco da Gama, Goa, India Pincode: 403804 E-mail: avinash@ncpor.res.in |
| Country | India |
| Presentation | Oral |
| Abstract | Arctic sea ice is declining at an accelerating rate, serving as one of the most visible indicators of global climate change. This loss of ice not only transforms polar environments but also alters atmospheric circulation patterns that extend far beyond the Arctic. Understanding how high-latitude variability affects tropical systems, such as the Indian summer monsoon, is essential for improving seasonal climate prediction. This study integrates satellite observations and coupled climate model simulations. Statistical analyses reveal a robust linkage between spring Arctic sea-ice concentration (SIC) and the leading mode of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) variability, derived using singular value decomposition. Observations show a significant negative correlation (r ⿿ ⿿0.25, p < 0.10) between ISMR and Arctic SIC, with stronger regional relationships over the Central Arctic (r ⿿ 0.51, p < 0.01) and the Barents⿿Kara Sea (r ⿿ ⿿0.39, p < 0.01). Composite circulation patterns indicate that years with high SIC are marked by pronounced anticyclonic anomalies extending from western Europe to the western Pacific, enhanced easterly upper-tropospheric jets, and intensified rainfall over northwestern and peninsular India. Conversely, low SIC years are characterised by weakened jets, anomalous subsidence, and deficient monsoon activity. Multi-model ensemble simulations from CMIP5 and CMIP6 reproduce these covarying structures, accounting for approximately 30⿿43% of the observed covariance. These results demonstrate that Arctic sea-ice variability modulates large-scale circulation through a circumglobal teleconnection, emphasising its growing role in shaping tropical monsoon behaviour and highlighting the need to incorporate Arctic climate signals into regional prediction frameworks. |
| Keywords | Teleconnections, Climate Variability, Seasonal Prediction, Satellite Observations, Climate Modeling |